US Housing Outlook Splits by Supply

Current spring conditions look more buyer-friendly, with 30-yr mortgage rates in the low-6% range and inventory higher than one yr earlier.
Rate relief offers an affordability tailwind, but the size of any demand pickup depends on consumer confidence and geopolitical uncertainty through the season.
Supply conditions remain key: constrained Midwest and Northeast markets are expected to keep price growth, while supply-rich metros may keep recalibrating ahead.
Rather than one national turning point, the outlook points to ongoing fragmentation, making local inventory and buyer confidence especially important for decisions.
Current conditions favor market-by-market planning because inventory gains, rate relief, and confidence shifts are not translating evenly across local housing markets.